The San Diego Padres disappointed in 2021, finishing below .500 and 28 games back in the National League West. Bob Melvin came in to manage the team, and Sean Manaea arrived via trade.
The Sidelines MLB odds show the Friars are +2000 to win the World Series. This is tied for the second-shortest price in the NL West with the San Francisco Giants, who have picked up where they left off with a scorching start to 2022.
San Diego reinforced its bullpen with Taylor Rogers, traded for Luke Voit and has a combination of players returning from injury and prospects emerging to add yet more talent. On paper, this team looks like it will be elite. The theory of this team has been far better than the reality thus far, however, and they have their work cut out to be anything more than third place in 2022.
It’s no surprise that the Dodgers are in dominant form to start the year. The Giants won’t win 107 games again, but even without LaMonte Wade Jr, Tommy LaStella and Evan Longoria, they have looked great.
Los Angeles and San Francisco rank first and fourth respectively in xwOBA given up by their pitchers. San Diego is 12th.
On the other side of the ball, the Dodgers are fourth, the Giants are 11th, and the Padres are 24th. A pinch of salt can be applied for such small sample sizes at this stage of the season, but San Diego is a clear third yet again. They are better than last year, yet they might need to be 15 wins better to finish any higher in the division.
Of course, it would be unfair to overlook the fact that Fernando Tatis Jr is yet to play this season after suffering an offseason injury. Tatis will ignite a Padres offense which has been slow to start the year, but this team remains flawed.
Many of San Diego’s everyday players have looked good at the dish so far. Yet, Eric Hosmer’s track record does not suggest he can keep this up. Trent Grisham’s 2020 exploits increasingly look like a short-season fluke. It’s unclear how many games Luke Voit can actually play.
In the rotation, Yu Darvish and Blake Snell have been generally underwhelming since arriving. Nick Martinez has a 7.99 FIP in the early going, and they will have to be incredibly careful with MacKenzie Gore’s workload. Pierce Johnson’s early injured list stint is an early worry for the bullpen, too.
The Padres have made aggressive moves over the last few off seasons. Their farm system has produced supreme talents and role players alike with a couple more debuting in 2022. This should be a team on the upswing, but it’s very much a case of needing to see it to believe it through a 162-game season.
Perhaps Melvin’s arrival fixes the chemistry issues that cropped up in 2021. Maybe Snell and Darvish find consistency. This could even be a career year for Hosmer.
Ultimately, though, the Padres are a team of uncertainty, a team that hasn’t earned the trust of baseball observers yet. In contrast, the plan is clearer with the Dodgers and Giants. They have an identity and a way of operating that has been successful. San Diego should make it to the postseason, but there’s a good chance they’re only the third best team in their division.
