Real Estate Update: Volume of home sales down 35% from year ago; market has slowed

Only one year ago, we were in a strong seller’s market with rising prices and typically multiple offers within the first week of a new listing.

Of course with surging inflation, the Federal Reserve began increasing interest rates last summer, causing mortgage rates to double to 6.5% or more. But it’s always darkest before dawn and we may see a bright improvement in the housing market in 2023.

Currently, the volume of home sales is down 35% from a year ago; the market has slowed. Buyer sentiment has plunged with 83% of consumers stating it’s a bad time to buy, according to the recent University of Michigan survey. While higher interest rates cause downward pressure on prices, inflation causes upward pressure on prices. The result is that prices are currently holding fairly steady and remain significantly higher than just one year ago.

But a primary cause of the inflation and resulting higher interest rates was government stimulus spending.

That spending has greatly decreased and liquidity (such as cash in the bank for households) is decreasing fairly quickly. Many economists are expecting the inflation rate to ease and the economy to slow. This would lead to lower mortgage rates in 2023 with more buyers starting to emerge. The Freddie Mac 30-year Mortgage Index peaked in November at 7.08% but has drifted down to 6.42% as of last week.

If rates drop into the 5’s over the next few months, home buying activity would likely pick up with more inventory coming on the market as more buyers make offers.

One interesting factor to consider is that governments all over the world are loaded up on debt and these high interest rates are causing great difficulty for government debt service worldwide.

Our own Federal Government has $32 trillion in debt, much of which is short-term, being constantly refinanced at higher rates. Clearly a priority of the Fed is to eventually reduce inflation and interest rates for both consumers and governments. Buyers could possibly refinance over the next few years at a lower rate.

The underlying demand for housing remains high and the job market is still strong. San Diego (pictured above) is flush with high paid workers from the tech, biotech, health, and defense industries. There is pent-up demand by buyers waiting on the sidelines for an opportunity to purchase a home at a reasonable interest rate.

My advice for both buyers and potential sellers is to start preparing for a more vibrant housing market now. Potential sellers may want to start sprucing up their properties in the hopes a busy market emerges. Buyers can meet with a loan officer to run credit, determine affordability and possibly clean up credit reports, etc.

While the economy still could enter a tough recession in 2023, it is also possible that mortgage rates could drop 1% or more, causing activity to jump and significant inventory to come on the market. Those prepared, can then jump in the market more quickly and achieve their goals.

Call me for a chat on how to best start the home buying or selling process or general advice on preparing for what could soon be a more active market in 2023.

For the market report I used a 12-month growth rate in the median home price from 1-year ago until today.

MARKET REPORT: (Single Family): College Area (92115): median price up 15.5% year over year to $895,000. San Carlos (92119): median price up 14% to $1,000,000. Del Cerro/Allied Gardens (92120): median price up 14% to $1,060,000.