Despite officials closing two San Diego city schools, fearing students infected with swine flu may spread the virus, experts say the H1N1 flu is no more dangerous than the average strain. San Diego County health officials reported nine confirmed cases of the strain May 6, while the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported 642 U.S. cases in 41 states including 67 in California – and two confirmed deaths. The Worldwide Health Organization (WHO) reported 1,516 cases in 22 countries worldwide and 30 deaths, as of press time. Experts such as La Jolla Institute for Allergy & Immunology’s (LJIAI) Alessandro Sette, Ph.D., said the virus is not as virulent as they first thought, offering insight into several possibilities for the public’s reactions toward the H1N1 virus. “The early data that was coming out in the first few days would suggest a fairly severe mortality rate. The data that is now crystallizing is suggesting that is not the case,” Sette said. “It is not that different than the seasonal flu.” Although Sette studies infectious diseases and is not a sociologist, the scientist said a number of factors could have spurred public fears regarding the swine flu, including a lack of public knowledge regarding the seasonal flu and the word pandemic. “There’s a certain confusion of pandemic versus epidemic,” Sette said. “Pandemic doesn’t mean severe — it means widespread disease. Epidemic means an outbreak. When an epidemic is all over the world it is a pandemic, but it doesn’t mean it has a high mortality.” A pandemic can spread benign infections, according to Sette. “I think the lack of information early on, on how much society is affected by the seasonal flu, made people more prone to panicking,” Sette said. “In general, when something is not known, until there is [data] and how easily it spreads it is legitimate to be on your highest guard.” An average of 36,000 people in the U.S. die from the seasonal flu each year, Sette said. According to the CDC, the deaths resulted from complications. The CDC says older people, young children and others with health conditions are at greater risk for complications, adding that “every year in the United States, on average 5 percent to 20 percent of the population gets the flu; more than 200,000 people are hospitalized from flu complications…” “Obviously we need to be totally vigilant and to monitor this strain. Influenza strains do mutate over time,” Sette said. “It’s helpful to point out that viruses do mutate in either direction, but viruses in circulation tend to become less virulent.” Sette said the Ebola virus would be an example of an ineffective virus. Although Ebola is deadly, the virus kills its host so quickly that it can’t spread, Sette said. Scientists like Sette can create a vaccine for a new influenza strain such as H1N1 — or swine flu — in a few months, he said. And if the virus mutates, Sette said, they would most likely need to create a new vaccine. “Influenza viruses mutate over time. Eventually viruses mutate enough to require new vaccines,” Sette said. Jack Brandais, spokesman for San Diego Unified School District, said parents will continue to receive taped messages regarding the outbreaks. As of May 6, the three county high schools that had closed last week due to suspected swine flu had reopened. For more information, visit www.sandi.net, www.sdcounty.-ca.gov or www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu.