Por DAVE SCHWAB | Noticias del centro y la zona alta<\/p>\n
An economist with San Diego Association of Governments believes the nearly three-month shutdown of much of San Diego\u2019s economy will translate into a long, slow and painful recovery.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s going to take longer than we hoped, that\u2019s for sure,\u201d said Ray Major, chief economist with SANDAG, the region\u2019s transportation planning agency comprised of local government City and county officials, which sets and oversees planning and fares for public mass transit.<\/p>\n
\u201cIf we\u2019d been shut down for two weeks, which was the original plan in March, reopening April 1, it would have been just a small blip. The problem we\u2019re running into now is that the business re-openings are coming with lots of strings attached.\u201d<\/p>\n
Added Major: \u201cNot everyone can go back to work now the way they did before the pandemic. And new health rules and regulations that have been put in place are reducing the possibility of businesses being profitable.\u201d<\/p>\n
A case in point, said Major, is the restaurant industry.<\/p>\n
\u201cRestaurants are marginally profitable at 100% capacity,\u201d said Major. \u201cNow with them at 25% to 50% capacity, there\u2019s no fix for that, no way they can make as much money. So they won\u2019t need as many waiters, waitresses, and chefs for a prolonged period.\u201d<\/p>\n
Concerning the impact of the pandemic on tourism, Major noted, \u201cThe industry was completely decimated, and with not many people flying, you\u2019re not going to get back that business and convention business this year. That could take 1-2 years for that to come back. I don\u2019t know of many businesses right now that would mandate that their employees go in-person to a convention. As with 9\/11, it took about two to three years to get air travel back.\u201d<\/p>\n
Major pointed out that \u201cjust because we\u2019re reopening businesses doesn\u2019t mean everybody is opening evenly.\u201d<\/p>\n
The SANDAG economist predicted that \u201c2020 is going to be a bust,\u201d adding 2021 could follow suit if there were to be an increase in coronavirus cases, and the government was to partially shut down the economy again. \u201cThen you would see a tremendous amount of pain and suffering in the economy,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
Of the revival of mass transit, which SANDAG, pre-pandemic, was pushing to be expanded rather than building more highways, Major said: \u201cTrolley and bus ridership is down right now. A lot of people are not using it because they\u2019re working from home, or due to health concerns. It will take a little time for that (ridership) to come back.\u201d<\/p>\n
Major sees another problem with the economy now: People not wanting to go back to work.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe federal government subsidizing people not to work is making it very difficult for businesses to get their employees to come back,\u201d Major said, adding, \u201cAlso, there\u2019s this gray area where the government is saying, \u2018If people don\u2019t feel comfortable going back to work, that they don\u2019t have to (right away).\u2019 That\u2019s part of the reason why it\u2019s been a little hard to reopen the economy, the rules are different for every single business.\u201d<\/p>\n
The unforeseen pandemic is having unpredictable outcomes with the economy, in Major\u2019s view.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis is the first time we\u2019ve ever shut down the economy,\u201d he said. \u201cIt came after we had the strongest economy, and longest expansion, in history. And all of a sudden, you shut it down. When it was shut down, the fundamentals of the economy were really strong. I\u2019m hoping that is enough to re-ignite businesses and get people to go back to work.\u201d<\/p>\n