Por Andy Cohen | Vigilancia del Congreso<\/p>\n
For many years San Diego has been a bit of an outlier when it comes to its congressional delegation. Other than Orange County, San Diego tended to be the only major metropolitan region in the state that overall voted Republican when it came to congressional elections. San Diego has always had its deep blue bastions, such as the heart of the city and the border district, but the rest of the county trended \u2014 much like its representation on the County Board of Supervisors \u2014 Republican.<\/p>\n
That changed in 2012, when Democrat Congressman Scott Peters defeated long entrenched incumbent Brian Bilbray, tilting the balance of power from Republican to Democrat for the first time since at least the 70\u2019s, three to two.<\/p>\n
In the 2018 midterm elections, the Democrats have a real opportunity to place a real stranglehold on the San Diego congressional delegation. So, with the June 5 primary elections looming, we\u2019ll take a look at what the San Diego regional congressional races look like.<\/p>\n
First, a note on the use of fundraising statistics as a metric of a candidate\u2019s viability: While money should not be the most important factor in an election cycle, candidates need money to get elected. And while it is surely an imperfect measure, it\u2019s the best we\u2019ve got in determining a candidate\u2019s ability to connect with his or her constituents prior to Election Day. So, with that in mind:<\/p>\n
52nd District<\/strong><\/p>\n We\u2019ll start with what was formerly the most competitive congressional district, but now appears to be a safe seat for Scott Peters (D-52).<\/strong> In 2012, Peters won an extra-innings slugfest against Republican incumbent Brian Bilbray, and until recently, was considered the most vulnerable of the local representatives. In 2014 former San Diego city councilmember, former mayoral candidate, and current right-wing radio talk show flamethrower Carl DeMaio took his shot at Peters. Since then, Peters has only solidified his position, mowing down his challengers in 2016, and drawing only token resistance for 2018.<\/p>\n There are currently six Republican candidates vying for Peters\u2019 seat, but only three that have raised any significant money \u2014 including Dr. James Veltmeyer, who unsuccessfully challenged Susan Davis in 2016 \u2014 and none who can match Peters\u2019 nearly $1.9 million raised and $2.4 million cash on hand. Businessman Michael Allman comes closest, with $380,000 raised and $235,000 on hand. While anything is possible, it does not seem realistic that any of these unknowns will be able to successfully challenge the Democratic incumbent who has only grown more and more popular in his district with each passing year. And considering the looming \u201cblue wave\u201d that is expected in November, those chances would appear to be nil.<\/p>\n 53rd & 51st District<\/strong><\/p>\n The 53rd District is all susana davis<\/strong> (D-53)<\/strong> and will be as long as she wants to remain in Congress, while Juan Vargas (D-51)<\/strong> has a stranglehold on the 51st District. Davis has drawn four challengers \u2014 including one independent \u2014 but none who has raised more than $26,000. Davis currently has in excess of $224,000 campaign cash on hand, having raised $202,000. It should be noted that candidates can keep funds raised from previous campaigns to apply to future campaigns.<\/p>\n Vargas has three challengers, two Republican and one independent, none of whom has raised more than $15,000. Vargas has raised over $520,000 (and spent $510,000).<\/p>\n Davis and Vargas will both easily cruise to reelection in the very definition of \u201csafe seats.\u201d<\/p>\n 50th District<\/strong><\/p>\n Incumbent Republican Congressman Cazador Duncan<\/strong> should, logically, be in real trouble. He\u2019s under investigation for campaign finance fraud, has been accused of spending campaign funds on his own drinking habit, along with other malfeasances. He has very little to show for his time in Congress, and yet because of his name recognition \u2014 he shares the name of his father, who also was his predecessor \u2014 and the \u201cR\u201d in front of his name, his is generally considered a safe seat.<\/p>\n But the scandals might finally be catching up to him. Hunter has been outraised by one of his Democratic challengers, with another nipping very closely at his heels. He has spent more than three times as much money as Ammar Campa-Najjar, his nearest competitor, having blown through over $1 million despite having only raised $666,000 this campaign cycle. Campa-Najjar has raised $707,000 with $333,000 cash on hand. Democrat Josh Butner has raised $595,000 and has $308,000 in the bank. The closest Republican challenger is Shamus Sayed with $253,000 raised and $157,000 in the bank. With Hunter\u2019s shenanigans, and despite an 11-point Republican registration advantage, this would be the most interesting congressional race if not for the 49th District. Two years ago, it would have been unfathomable that a Democrat could seriously challenge Hunter, but here we are, although it still seems unlikely Hunter will lose.<\/p>\n 49th District<\/strong><\/p>\n If the 52nd District was one of the most expensive in the nation during previous elections, it has easily been surpassed by the circus that has become the 49th District. Congressman Darrell Issa<\/strong> saw the writing on the wall and has called it a career, and a crowd has formed to take his place. The 49th is an R+1 district, but it\u2019s the Democrats in the race who have taken center stage. Four of them, including millionaire businessman Paul Kerr ($1.9 million raised), Sara Jacobs, the granddaughter of Qualcomm co-founder Irwin Jacobs and former State Department official ($1.7 million raised), attorney Mike Levin ($1.5 million), and Marine Colonel Doug Applegate ($800,000), who came within one percent of running Issa out of office in 2016.<\/p>\n They are followed by an impressive collection of Republican candidates: San Juan Capistrano City Councilman Brian Maryott; Chairwoman of the State Board of Equalization, Diane Harkey; San Diego County Supervisor Kristin Gaspar; and State Assemblyman Rocky Chavez, none of whom has raised more than $420,000.<\/p>\n This seat is a ripe pickup opportunity for Democrats, but with such a crowded field, they run the risk of losing out in the general election altogether in California\u2019s top two \u201cjungle primary\u201d system.<\/p>\n 52nd District fundraising stats: bit.ly\/2JJ1YQN<\/a><\/p>\n 53rd District fundraising stats: bit.ly\/2FxXMRa<\/a><\/p>\n 51st District fundraising stats: bit.ly\/2I85Mxy<\/a><\/p>\n 50th District fundraising stats: bit.ly\/2rcaHmT<\/a><\/p>\n 49th District fundraising stats: bit.ly\/2JK0h5v<\/a><\/p>\n