By Andrew Keatts |\u00a0Voice of San Diego<\/p>\n
Save us, SANDAG. You\u2019re our only hope.<\/p>\n
San Diego\u2019s got a long list of stuff that needs to be repaired, and nowhere near enough money to pay for it all.<\/p>\n
City leaders years ago circled November 2016 as a time that might change. Young, liberal and low-income voters would flock to the polls for the presidential election, the thinking went, making it possible that two out of three voters would agree to raise taxes to pay for all the city\u2019s needs.<\/p>\n
Councilman Todd Gloria promised<\/a> to start working on it back at the 2012 inauguration. He reiterated<\/a> the promise during a State of the City address when he was interim mayor two years later.<\/p>\n But as 2016 draws closer, it\u2019s clear the city might not have done enough to even put the question to voters.<\/p>\n Instead, the city might have to settle for latching onto a parallel attempt<\/a> to raise taxes countywide by the San Diego Association of Governments, a regional planning agency whose board is made up of leaders from around the county.<\/p>\n \u201cFrom my perspective, the city is probably unlikely to be able to put forward a real viable measure by 2016,\u201d Gloria said at a June 26 SANDAG meeting discussing the bond measure, days after a Council committee told city staff<\/a> to keep working on getting a proposal ready for voters.<\/p>\n A spokesperson for Councilwoman Lorie Zapf, who is on both the Council\u2019s infrastructure committee and SANDAG\u2019s board, echoed Gloria\u2019s remarks.<\/p>\n \u201cSANDAG is just better organized,\u201d Zapf staffer Alex Bell said. \u201cThey\u2019ve been working on the bond measure longer than we have. They\u2019re further down the line.\u201d<\/p>\n The SANDAG meeting included a presentation from local pollster John Nienstedt, who researched whether increasing sales taxes across the county to pay for public needs even stands a chance.<\/p>\n It does. It\u2019s close, but a tax increase could cross the 66 percent threshold it needs, Nienstedt found.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n So you\u2019re telling me there\u2019s a chance<\/strong><\/p>\n Unlike the city, SANDAG has no choice but to ask voters to increase taxes.<\/p>\n When county voters in 2004 extended TransNet, a half-cent sales tax that pays for transportation projects, they also voted to require that SANDAG come back to them with a way to pay for open space preservation.<\/p>\n SANDAG later added shoreline preservation, water quality and public transportation to the list of unfunded needs for which it would eventually ask voters for more revenue.<\/p>\n That was supposed to happen in 2008, but SANDAG \u2014 citing polling that said a proposal would probably lose \u2014 delayed the vote until 2010. It then delayed the vote until 2012, and again until 2016.<\/p>\n Now, the polling says a tax increase could win.<\/p>\n Nienstedt tested two ballot measures: one that sunsets in 40 years, and one with no end in sight.<\/p>\n \u201cBoth versions of the measure are within striking distance of passing,\u201d he told the SANDAG board.<\/p>\n Anti-tax sentiment is down and environmental concern is up since SANDAG polled the issue in 2011, Nienstedt said.<\/p>\n Dueling tax proposals<\/strong><\/p>\n While city leaders are slowly shifting their support to SANDAG\u2019s bond proposal because it\u2019s further along in the process, having both bonds on the same ballot was never ideal.<\/p>\n \u201cThe tax rubber band is only so elastic,\u201d said SANDAG Executive Director Gary Gallegos last year. \u201cIf you bunch them all up, there\u2019s a likelihood (voters) say no to everything.\u201d<\/p>\n There\u2019s noise that state tax extensions will come before voters in 2016, which could further fracture support for local initiatives. Chula Vista\u2019s SANDAG representative, Councilmember Pamela Bensoussan, said her city could have its own infrastructure-related bond on the 2016 ballot. Councilwoman Marti Emerald dicho<\/a> she\u2019s pushing a bond to fund fire stations, too.<\/p>\n Having voters face tax increases from the state and county, as well as citywide measures in Chula Vista and San Diego, could put them all in competition. The city\u2019s independent budget analyst suggested as much in its own informe<\/a> on the city\u2019s options to fund needed infrastructure improvements.<\/p>\n The IBA report said the city should decide by September whether it is pursuing its own measure, or leaning on the SANDAG bond instead.<\/p>\n But Colin Parent, policy counsel for transportation advocacy group Circulate San Diego, sent a memo to elected leaders arguing SANDAG\u2019s proposal could generate enough money to fix each city\u2019s infrastructure problems, and fund regional needs.<\/p>\n \u201cA regional measure is absolutely superior to a citywide measure,\u201d Parent said.<\/p>\n He also pointed out that SANDAG\u2019s long-term transportation plan is already counting on money from this bond paying for its future projects. Forget about planning more transit projects, or making them happen faster: Without this bond, SANDAG can\u2019t even fund the transit projects it\u2019s already counting on.<\/p>\n How money from SANDAG\u2019s bond would be broken down is still up in the air. The IBA estimated it could bring around $42 million a year to the city; Circulate San Diego\u2019s memo suggested it could be as much as $108 million annually.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n Fending off opposition<\/strong><\/p>\n Nienstedt\u2019s poll also showed that support for the bond fell below the passage threshold after respondents heard a series of arguments against the plan.<\/p>\n One conclusion from that is that SANDAG needs to carefully select what goes into the plan to make it less susceptible to attacks.<\/p>\n It also means SANDAG needs to reach out to potential opponents and address concerns to make sure they don\u2019t organize against it.<\/p>\n Lani Lutar used to run the San Diego County Taxpayers Association, where, based on her own assessment to SANDAG\u2019s board, she \u201cspent a tiny portion of her life opposing bad tax measures.\u201d But speaking now for the Endangered Habitats League \u2014an environmental preservation group \u2014 she said SANDAG\u2019s proposal is better equipped to get a broad base of support than one from the city of San Diego.<\/p>\n \u201cI think unfortunately the city would have to admit, if you were to throw hundreds of millions or a billion dollars at them, they would be struggling a bit to spend that money,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n