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<\/a>Net energy metering<\/strong><\/p>\n If you go solar now and sign up for a program called net energy metering, San Diego Gas & Electric has to credit you at the full retail rate for power your panels produce.<\/p>\n That means customers can be credited up to 42 cents a kilowatt hour for the energy from their panels under the current rate structure. This system can help solar converts lower or totally offset their energy bills.<\/p>\n This deal has a to-be-determined expiration date \u2014 and it\u2019s a foregone conclusion that the new one isn\u2019t going to be as good as the current one.<\/p>\n The changes come as a result of AB 327, a law that calls for regulators to come up with a new net metering plan and energy rate structure<\/a>.<\/p>\n The California Public Utilities Commission already voted on the new rate system, allowing state utilities to move from the current four-tier system, which has incentivized solar investments for many folks, to a two-tiered one. (The more energy you use, the more you\u2019ll pay in the higher usage tier.) SDG&E\u2019s set to phase in those reforms<\/a> over the next few years.<\/p>\n The rate changes alone will add a few years to the time it now takes to recoup via lower bills the investment of going solar, though it should also make solar more attractive to customers whose bills will go up under the new system.<\/p>\n Those reforms are closely linked with net energy metering. Not only do higher rates push more consumers to go solar, but they also allow solar customers to reap more credit for the power their panels produce through net energy metering.<\/p>\n Now that latter deal\u2019s changing, too. AB 327 requires the state to roll out a new net metering arrangement by July 2017, or once rooftop solar customers\u2019 power production hits a state-set cap. San Diego\u2019s likely to reach it before 2017. SDG&E data shows the region\u2019s already more than two-thirds<\/a> of the way to that cap.<\/p>\n Energy wonks are now trying to calculate the value<\/a> per kilowatt hour of solar power, and thus how much credit solar customers should receive for their contributions to the grid once the new system\u2019s in place.<\/p>\n SDG&E and various solar interest groups are set to make their proposals on how this should look by early next month. The Public Utilities Commission is expected to have a new structure figured out by the end of the year.<\/p>\n No one knows how it\u2019ll look.<\/p>\n Federal investment tax credit<\/strong><\/p>\n Right now, if you buy your solar panels outright or take out a loan, you could receive an income tax credit<\/a> up to 30 percent within a year of that purchase.<\/p>\n This incentive, known as the federal investment tax credit, could be on the chopping block. It\u2019s set to expire at the end of next year.<\/p>\n Brad Heavner, policy director for the California Solar Energy Industries Association, said solar lobbyists are hard at work trying to persuade Congress to keep the tax credit, or at least let it phase it out over time.<\/p>\n There\u2019s still plenty of work to do, Heavner said. \u201cWe still need to build the political support to get a majority.\u201d<\/p>\n Losing the incentive altogether could mean an instant 30 percent increase to the cost of going solar.<\/p>\n Yet Heavner acknowledged the industry (and future solar customers) could probably cope with a gradual drawdown.<\/p>\n That\u2019s thanks to another shift that could be just as meaningful.<\/p>\n Price drops<\/strong><\/p>\n The cost of going solar has decreased dramatically<\/a> over the last decade and that might soften the blow from all these other changes.<\/p>\n A joint study<\/a> released last fall by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory found the average price of solar systems fell 6 to 7 percent annually from 1998 to 2013, and by 12 to 15 percent from 2012 to 2013 alone.<\/p>\n The Department of Energy\u2019s SunShot Initiative set a goal<\/a> of a 75 percent average decrease in costs from 2010 to 2020, and analysts concluded the nation\u2019s mostly on track to meet that target.<\/p>\n Most solar advocates say the industry can probably cope with more incremental changes but may struggle to keep pace with the immediate loss of the tax credit or drastic changes to net energy metering.<\/p>\n \u201cIf we were to lose (those programs) immediately, we couldn\u2019t drop prices fast enough,\u201d Heavner said.<\/p>\n