Realtors Conference & Expo: It’s a great time to buy — if you can get a loan.

By Emmet Pierce

Looking for ways to make the best of a weak housing market, an estimated 20,000 real estate professionals from across the nation gathered at the San Diego Convention Center Nov. 13 to 16 to attend the 2009 Realtors Conference & Expo.

No one tried to gloss over the fact that the real estate industry remains troubled, despite a recent improvement in sales activity. The expo was marketed to real estate professionals as a workshop on how to stay afloat during bad times.

“Let’s be honest — it’s been a difficult year in real estate,” said an online invitation to the expo. “There’s never been a more important time to invest in education and networking for your business.”

The titles of training sessions reflected the conference’s stoic mood. One was called “Agent Survival Tips for a Tough Market.” Another was titled “Bouncing Back.” That session offered agents and brokers a chance to “learn a process to calm yourself down and see beyond your emotions.”

The pace of sales and prices for homes are expected to increase moderately in 2010 as the industry recovers from the most serious downturn since the Great Depression. Gina Barnes, a real estate agent who specializes in Mission Hills property, said she decided to attend the expo to gain a better economic perspective and to check out the latest in technology.

Although the market isn’t as strong as it was during the housing boom that peaked in 2005, “I think we have great demand and great confidence among buyers right now,” she said. Buyers “realize the opportunity is here” because of low interest rates and reduced prices.

“There are definitely hot pockets to the market where we are seeing multiple offers and very low inventory,” Barnes continued. “Overall the inventory is quite low and some listings, if they are not reflective of fair market prices, are sitting. If they are near fair market, they are flying off the shelves.’’

Mary McTernan, a real estate agent who specializes in North Park homes, said the recent extension of the popular $8,000 first-time home-buyer tax credit has energized the local housing market. “I think it has been keeping us going,” she said. “A lot of buyers I have sold to, I would say 50 percent of my business, is first-time home buyers. North Park has a lot of two-bedroom, one-bath homes. It’s a first-time buyer neighborhood. I was thrilled when it was extended.”

Shortly before the expo opened, the National Association of Realtors reported that home prices dropped in eight out of every 10 cities in the U.S. during the third quarter of the year. Deeply-discounted distressed sales made up 30 percent of transactions. On the bright side, a growing number of buyers are entering the market. Home sales continued to climb, with third-quarter sales exceeding 2008 figures.

The median sales price of existing homes fell in 123 out of 153 metropolitan markets as compared to the same period in 2008, however. Prices rose in the other 30 cities. Nationally, the median home price was $177,900, or 11 percent below the third quarter last year.

With unemployment high, real estate brokers and agents are concerned about how many home loans will fail in the months ahead. In California, about 130,000 homeowners have been enrolled in the “Making Home Affordable” loan modification plan, which the Obama Administration introduced in February.

Realtor association President Vicki Cox Golder used a press briefing at the expo to stress the importance of easing the credit crunch. Burned in the mortgage market meltdown after the housing boom reached its peak in late 2005, lenders have tightened standards so much that even people with solid credit can find it difficult to secure a home loan, she said.

“We have to have liquidity in the market, Cox Golder said. “Unless we have the money available for buyers, we can’t get them into a home…We’re all scrambling for ideas.”

Lenders now are “in the denial market,” said association spokesman Lucien Salvant. “They are looking for the golden buyer instead of the qualified buyer.”

Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the Realtor group, had good news for conference attendees. Yun said he anticipates that home resales nationwide will reach 5.7 million in 2010, up from a projected 5 million this year. Improved sales will boost consumer confidence, he added. He expects prices nationally to climb about 4 percent after a projected decline of 13 percent this year.

“The fear factor will no longer be at play in 2010,” Yun said.

While unemployment may hover around the 10 percent rate in 2010, house hunters with access to cash will take advantage of reduced prices and low interest rates, he added. Foreclosures, which remain high in many U.S. markets, are likely to peak in the first or second quarter of next year, the economist said.

In formerly hot housing markets like San Diego, foreclosures are no longer sitting empty for months and dragging down overall home values, Yun said. “We are seeing buyers picking up those properties.

Yun’s optimism didn’t extend to commercial real estate however. He predicted lean times in the year ahead.

“Who is buying?” he asked. “The answer is ‘no one.’”

Lending institutions with high exposure to commercial real estate loans will be in danger of failing, he added. “”I think there will be continuing takeovers by the FDIC (Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.).

In addition to giving real estate professionals a chance to learn more about coping with tough times, the expo was a showcase for products. Inside the convention center’s exhibition hall, hundreds of companies offered services that ranged from home protection warranties to mortgage and financial services.

While many attendees came to shop, others came to socialize and rub elbows with celebrities. Former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice gave her perspectives on current world events at the conference general session.

Hundreds of people lined up on Saturday to see actor William Shatner, Star Trek’s Captain Kirk. He appeared at the NAR booth to pose for photos and sign autographs.

Ginny Ollis, a real estate broker in the Mission Hills area, attended numerous presentations at the conference. “It was interesting talking to people from other parts of the country,” she said. “They thought this was one of the most beautiful places they have ever been. I was reminded that nothing works unless you start with what the customer wants.”

Bill Vivian, a North Park real estate agent, spent his time at the expo in the exhibit hall, meeting potential clients. He was surprised by the large number of agents who were looking to purchase second homes for clients in the San Diego area. He thinks that’s a sign that the market will be stronger in the months ahead.

“They were all coming by my booth and asking if San Diego is on sale,” Vivian said. “It certainly is. Prices have dropped substantially. There are a lot of agents who are inquiring for clients who are looking for vacation homes. It was definitely worth my time. I made some major contacts.”

Emmet Pierce is a San Diego real estate writer and winner of the California Reinvestment Coalition’s 2009 news media award.

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