The continuing political fervor over the recent presidential election in Mexico ignited passions at the University of California, San Diego (UCSD) in an in-depth roundtable discussion about the possible outcomes and their implications for U.S. foreign policy toward Mexico.
About 35 people gathered at the Deutz Conference Room on July 20 to hear the latest installment of the UCSD Distinguished Speaker series. The three-person panel included Jorge Chabat, analyst and political commentator, Centro de Invesitgaciones y Docencia Economicas (CIDE); Rodrigo Iván Cortez Jiménez, Congressional Representative, Partido Acción Nacional (PAN); and Richard Feinberg, professor of International Political Economy, Graduate School of International Relations and Pacific Studies.
The discussion took a bit of a twist, however, because the presidential elections on July 2 have not yet yielded an undisputed victory for either candidate.
An uncertified count after the elections showed candidate Felipe Calderón apparently victorious over López Obrador by about 240,000 votes. Following the results, López Obrador demanded a recount by hand of about 50,000 of the 130,000 “casillas,” or ballot boxes, which motivated thousands of demonstrators to take to the street in protest. The Federal Electoral Tribunal (TRIFE), which was created to settle election disputes, has the final say in these matters and must declare a winner by Sept. 6 or annul the vote.
One possible outcome ” and the most likely, according to the panelists ” is Calderón’s victory.
A member of the National Action Party, or Partido Acción Nacional (PAN), Calderón represents a more conservative section of the Mexican population. He has been compared to President George W. Bush and has confronted the important issue of immigration “forthright as a mutual issue of concern,” a slightly different approach to the hands-off, look-the-other-way position, which was the official Mexican stance not long ago, Feinberg said.
Jiménez dijo que cree con confianza que el estado de derecho, combinado con la voluntad del pueblo, llevará a Calderón a la presidencia.
“Hay que ver en qué casos la ley permite abrir las [cabinas de ballet]”… para que ni el PAN, ni el PRD, se lo puedan hacer”, dijo Jiménez.
La ley mexicana permite la apertura de las urnas bajo ciertas circunstancias, que incluyen irregularidades en el conteo de votos. El analista político Chabat dijo que la votación fue tan reñida que los errores podrían ser algo tan simple como un error humano al contar los votos.
El otro desenlace discutido fue la posibilidad de que López Obrador salga victorioso. El candidato izquierdista a menudo ha sido descrito como “provincial en perspectiva”, eligiendo no viajar sino concentrarse en desarrollar el interior y reformar los programas sociales, según los panelistas.
The possibilities have broader geopolitical consequences, especially for the United States, the panelists agreed.
Feinberg placed the elections in a larger political perspective, as he compared the likely outcome with the recent defeat of left-leaning populist candidates in other South American countries, including Venezuela and Columbia.
“So, actually, you have a more of a consolidation rather than a lurch to the left “¦ voters are choosing continuity rather than dramatic political change throughout the Western hemisphere,” Feinberg said.
In the broader political perspective, this has actually been a good summer for Latin America, Feinberg continued, emphasizing that a victory for Calderón, who “clearly represents continuity,” means a positive step for continuing relations between U.S. and Mexico. He said this could lead to more progress on political issues such as illegal immigration policies and the possibilities of deepening political relations with Mexico.
“The Partnership for Prosperity “” that is the nitty-gritty of U.S. Mexican relations,” Feinberg said. “It has everything in there. There are working groups on every issue that anybody would want to see, on poverty alleviation, on infrastructure, on education, on healthcare, on competition policy, on energy ” it’s all there. The problem is there’s no money. There’s no public funds put forth, and there’s no serious institutional structures put forth. So it’s nice on paper, but it’s left up to blah-blah discussions “¦ It’s not the shortage of ideas; it’s the shortage of political will of all three NAFTA partners.”
While a new leader for Mexico remains unnamed, it is already clear that the presidential elections will have economical and political ramifications for the United States that go beyond politics and market fluctuations, the panelists concluded. The proximity of the people, culture and countries connects both futures inexorably as the economic alliances built between international business and politics will continue to spark scholarly discussion about issues that affect the closest border cities.