The continuing political fervor over the recent presidential elections ignited passions at UCSD in a discussion over the possible outcomes of the elections and what it means for the United States.
The latest segment of the distinguished speaker series at UCSD included a roundtable discussion over the possible outcomes of Mexico’s presidential elections and the implications these outcomes would have on U.S. relations with Mexico. About 35 people gathered at the Deutz Conference Room at UCSD on Thursday, July 20, to hear the panelists, including a combination of Mexican and American speakers, discuss how these elections will affect U.S. policy regarding Mexico. The discussion took a bit of a twist, however, because the presidential elections were supposed to be over by the time this panel discussion took place.
The three-speaker panel included Jorge Chabat, Analyst and Political commentator, Centro de Invesitgaciones y Docencia Economicas(CIDE); Rodrigo Iván Cortez Jiménez, Congressional Representative, Partido Acción Nacional(PAN); and Richard Feinberg, Professor of International Political Economy, Graduate School of International Relations and Pacific Studies.
The outcome of the election showed candidate Felipe Calderón apparently victorious over Andrés Manuel López Obrador by about 243,000 votes. This caused López Obrador to contest the outcome, demanding a recount of about 50,000 of the 130,000 “casillas,” or ballot boxes. His actions motivated thousands of demonstrators to take to the street in protest of López Obrador’s apparent defeat.
The panelists discussed, in depth, the possible outcomes and the implications of those outcomes for U.S. foreign policy toward Mexico. The Federal Electoral Tribunal (TRIFE), which was created to settle election disputes, has the final say in these matters and must declare a winner by Sept. 6.
One possible outcome of the elections discussed is that Felipe Calderón wins. According to the panel, this would be the likely outcome of the elections. Calderón is a member of the National Action Party or Partido Acción Nacional (PAN) and represents a more conservative section of the Mexican population. He has been compared to President Bush, and Calderón has confronted the important issue of immigration “forthright as a mutual issue of concern,” a slightly different approach to the hands-off-look-the-other-way, which was the official Mexican position not long ago said Feinberg.
Rodrigo Iván Cortez Jiménez, Congressional Representative of (PAN) confidently believes that the rule of law combined with the will of the people, will usher Felipe Calderón into the presidency.
“We have to see what cases the law allows to open the [ballet boxes]”¦so not even PAN, not even PRD, can take it upon themselves.” Jiménez said.
Mexican law allows the opening of the ballot boxes under certain circumstances, which include irregularities in the vote count. Political analyst Jorge Chabat, who spoke at the discussion, said it that the vote was so close that the mistakes could be something so simple as human error in tallying the votes.
The other outcome discussed was the possibility of Andrés Manuel López Obrador emerging victorious. The leftist candidate has often been described as “provincial in outlooks,” choosing not to travel but instead concentrate on developing the interior and reforming social programs according to the panelists.
The possible outcomes have broader geopolitical consequences especially for the United States.
Richard Feinberg, professor of international political economy, places the elections in a larger political perspective as he compared the likely outcome of the election with the recent defeat of left-leaning populist candidates across South American counties including Venezuela and Columbia.
“So actually you have a more of a consolidation rather than a lurch to the left”¦voters are choosing continuity rather than dramatic political change throughout the western hemisphere” Feinberg said.
In this broader political perspective, this has actually been a good summer for Latin America, Feinberg said. Feinberg emphasized that a victory for Calderón who “clearly represents continuity,” means a positive step for the continuing relations between U.S. and Mexico. This could lead to more progress on political issues like illegal immigration policies and the possibilities of deepening political relations with Mexico.
“The Partnership for Prosperity, that is the nitty-gritty of U.S. Mexican relations. It has everything in there. There are working groups on every issue that anybody would want to see, on poverty alleviation, on infrastructure, on education, on healthcare, on competition policy, on energy. It’s all there. The problem is there’s no money. There’s no public funds put forth, and there’s no serious institutional structures put forth. So it’s nice on paper but its left up to blah-blah discussions”¦it’s not the shortage of ideas; it’s the shortage of political will of all three NAFTA partners,” Feinberg said.
The Mexican presidential elections will have economical and political ramifications for the United States that go beyond politics and market fluctuations. The propinquity of the people, culture and countries connects both futures inexorably as the economical alliances built between international business and politics will continue to spark scholarly discussion about issues that affect the closest border cities.