UC San Diego researchers have determined America is falling behind in its credibility in joining international efforts to combat climate change, while the university itself is moving forward with its Deep Decarbonization Initiative.

UC San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy has found American credibility on climate change is lagging behind other global regions, particularly Europe. That conclusion came from a study titled “Determining the credibility of commitments in international climate policy,” which was published recently in Nature Climate Change. It was the first study to provide scientific evidence assessing how effective governments will be at implementing their commitments that were made under the landmark 2015 Paris Agreement. In that agreement, countries pledged to reduce CO2 emissions, which cause climate change.

“Our scientific paper uses new methods to ask experts on climate policies all around the world to evaluate the pledges made by different countries under the 2015 Paris Climate Accords,” said the study’s lead author, David Victor, professor of industrial innovation at UC San Diego’s School of Global Policy and Strategy, and co-director of the university’s Deep Decarbonization Initiative.

Noting the climate credibility study took place during the Trump administration, Victor said the results showed that “fragmentation in the American political system makes it hard for us to be credible like we used to be when we make promises to other countries.”

Noting Trump withdrew the United States from the Paris Climate Accords, Victor pointed out some states, like California, picked up the slack.

“After Trump’s decision, a lot of the states doubled down on their own climate initiatives,” said Victor adding America, under the Paris Accords, “promised to cut our emissions by 2030 to levels below what they were in 2005. And the reality is, there was no way we could do that.”

Nonetheless, Victor concluded results of UC San Diego’s climate study indicate the framework of the Paris Agreement is working pretty well. “It is getting countries to make ambitious pledges,” he said. “Last year, nearly all countries updated those pledges and made them even more ambitious. What’s needed next is better systems for checking to see whether countries are actually delivering what they promise.”

Addressing opponents of global decarbonization, who argue that it isn’t viable, or is too expensive, Victor said estimates show decarbonization is both doable and affordable.

“The goal is not to try and eliminate carbon emissions over the next 20 years – that would be really expensive,” Victor said adding, “We believe the cost of a smart, long-term climate-control strategy is 2% of gross domestic product. That is much less than the cost of the physical impact of climate change.”

GDP is the total monetary or market value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country’s borders in a specific time period. As a broad measure of overall domestic production, it functions as a comprehensive scorecard of a given country’s economic health.

UC San Diego has a Deep Decarbonization Initiative in place. The mission of that initiative is to help understand and guide the global economy as it moves toward net-zero carbon emissions.

The university acknowledges that getting to zero emissions won’t happen just by telling people what is feasible. But rather, concludes that policies must be designed and analyzed with an eye to how the promise of new ideas can be implemented in the reality of actual governments and economies.

Victor, who is co-author of a new book titled “Fixing The Climate: Strategies for an Uncertain World,” said UC San Diego’s Deep Decarbonization Initiative is a “research study on the technologies you need to transition to renewable energy.” One concrete example, he noted, is the gradual changeover from gas-powered to hybrid- and electric-powered vehicles.

Victor said decarbonizing and converting to renewable energy won’t be a quick – or easy – transition. But he concluded it is one that can be done.

“There are two key messages,” said Victor. “One is that we need government and business to both focus on this transition, as there is very little we can do about it as individuals. The other is that we’ve actually been making progress on promoting sustainable energy use through providing incentives.”