By Taylor Schulte | Financial News
If you’ve been watching Bitcoin prices lately, you know they’ve made quite a run. As of this writing, a single Bitcoin is worth $831.91. To put things in perspective, Bitcoin values were in the $300-$400 range for much of 2015.
Those who invested in Bitcoin years ago are likely rejoicing. But, should you join them? Continue reading to learn more about Bitcoin, how it works, and why this investment might be worth skipping despite its high returns.
What is Bitcoin?
Generally speaking, Bitcoin is a crypto-currency used by online firms and big businesses worldwide. One of the biggest advantages of Bitcoin is that the currency can cross borders easily — facilitating international trade.
For purposes of investing, Bitcoin is similar to any other currency (or commodity) investment. This means when it comes to your investment return, Bitcoin faces the same uphill battle as investing in:
- gold
- agricultural products
- fine art
- oil
In other words, at any given time, Bitcoin is worth whatever the market says it’s worth. While this isn’t a problem in itself, investing in Bitcoin does pose some specific challenges.
Two challenges you’ll face
As sexy as investing in Bitcoin sounds — and despite the recent run-up in price — there are at least two fundamental problems with investing in Bitcoin right now.
Problem 1: You lose money after inflation
When you invest in Bitcoin (or gold, the price of oil, other commodities, other currency, fine art), you are betting the farm on price appreciation alone. Or rather, you’re betting that the price of Bitcoin will go up compared to the U.S. dollar.
But Bitcoin is different from more conventional investments like stocks, bonds and real estate. That’s because conventional investments offer the chance to generate cash.
As an example, stocks are a slice of business ownership. Businesses exist to earn a profit. As an owner of that business, you are entitled to a slice of that profit.
That profit can either be re-invested into the business (to increase the value of the business) or paid to investors as a dividend. Either way, a stock generates cash — ultimately enriching those who own stock.
Unfortunately, that’s not the case for Bitcoin, gold, “Forex,” commodities or fine art. These sorts of investments do not generate cash. Instead, investors can only hope they increase with the price of inflation.
Not only must your investment appreciate at the rate of inflation, but it must also go above and beyond inflation to make up for the transaction costs. Trust me when I say this is rarely the case.
Most commodities increase at the rate of inflation. Further, currency doesn’t increase in value at all — because that’s exactly what inflation is — a decrease in the value of currency!
Problem 2: mean reversion
Mean reversion is a fancy way of saying: “what goes up, must come down — and vice versa.”
All investments are subject to mean reversion, and Bitcoin is no exception. Mean reversion itself isn’t a bad thing, but it’s still worth noting when it comes to investing in Bitcoin specifically.
As you might know, commodities provide an investment return at the just about the rate of inflation — before fees. Moreover, commodities depend upon price appreciation alone to provide an investment return. This is because commodities do not generate cash.
So, if you are going to get an investment return from Bitcoin, you don’t want to be buying at a market top. However, recent run-ups in price suggest that it’s possible we are at the top of the Bitcoin market — or, at least on the way.
Pro tip: Invest as much money as you can stand to lose
Try thinking of investing in Bitcoin as you would buying a lottery ticket. It only costs a dollar, but you could win big. However, as historically shown with commodities, the odds are good that you’re going to lose money compared to a low-cost diversified investment.
Most of the time, you’ll be a lot better off if you choose a long-term investment strategy that isn’t quite so volatile.
You should also diversify as much as you can; this way, you won’t lose your shirt if one particular investment falls apart.
If you choose to throw your money into Bitcoin in spite of this advice, just know you’re doing so at your peril.
The best thing you can do is limit your investment to an amount you can afford to lose, then brace yourself for a long and bumpy ride.
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—Taylor Schulte, CFP, es el CEO de Definir financiera y el fundador de StayWealthySanDiego.com y le apasiona ayudar a las personas a tomar decisiones inteligentes con su dinero. Puede comunicarse con él al 619-577-4002 o [email protected].
