An object about 160 feet in diameter has the astronomical community on the edge of its seat.
As scientists wait for Jan. 30, the day a newly found asteroid named 2007 WD5 has a 1 in 75 chance of slamming into the planet Mars at about 30,000 miles an hour, delivering a blow equal to 3 megatons of TNT, they believe they may be better able to pinpoint the exact trajectory, given time, said Rick Puetter, research physicist at UCSD Center for Astrophysics and Space Sciences.
The asteroid, discovered Nov. 20 after passing within 5 million miles of Earth, has an orbit that takes it very close to our planet. It is now halfway between Earth and Mars, Puetter said.
At first, scientists pegged the chances of an asteroid-Mars collision at 1 in 350, but lowered the odds to 1 in 75 last week. Because the asteroid is receding from Earth, it is becoming increasingly difficult to observe, but Puetter said scientists should be able to see it clearly in early January and be able to measure its orbit.
“Because of uncertainties about the asteroid’s exact orbit, there is a 1 in 75 chance of it hitting Mars,” Puetter said.
Also, the waxing moon was blocking scientists’ view, but in January these new measurements will lead to a significant improvement in the orbit accuracy, Puetter said.
“And we will then be able to refine the probability that the asteroid might collide with Mars,” he said.
Scientists are equating the strength of the impact of this asteroid, if it does hit the red planet, to the object that impacted Siberia in 1908. It would produce a crater on Mars that could be more than a half-mile wide.
Although NASA’s Mars Rover is currently on the red planet, Puetter said at this time that mission is not at risk.
For more information, or updates on the asteroid, go to: http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.cfm?release=2007-152. Also see http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/ and http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news151.html.
For more information about UCSD Planetary Sciences, go to: http://casswww.ucsd.edu/personal/puetter.html.