Nobody who was in San Diego that Sunday could forget waking up to an ominous sky darkened by smoke and ash from raging North County wildfires. The sun never broke through on October 26, 2003, and anxiety and fear continued to grow throughout the county.
Remember monitoring the progress of the fires as, for the first time, they raced ever closer to the beach communities?
It could happen again. And, given similar conditions, the next wildfire in San Diego County could be even worse.
That’s the premise of a recent program about the fire on the Weather Channel, part of their series called, “It Could Happen Tomorrow.”
According to experts interviewed on the program, the next catastrophic wildfire has the potential to burn all the way to the Pacific Ocean, destroying many of our coastal communities.
In years past, people living on the coast felt relatively safe from the inland wildfires, instead fearing the possibility of a tsunami. However, fire could be a bigger and more realistic threat for coastal dwellers.
A repeat combination of the necessary ingredients ” severe drought producing masses of dead vegetation, high winds and flammable housing ” could touch off an urban conflagration so powerful it could only be stopped by the ocean.
That’s what happened in the fall of 2003. After five years of drought, the dense, parched chaparral of Scripps Ranch and the hot, dry Santa Ana winds made the area a tinderbox just waiting for a spark. That spark came when a hunter got lost in the Cleveland National Forest and decided to light a signal fire.
“The Santa Ana winds pushed the fire bigger and nearer San Diego and the Cedar fire quickly became one of California’s largest,” said Fire Chief Kim Zagaris, from the Governor’s Office of Emergency Services.
Then two more fires sprang up. Suddenly, scarily, the Cedar fire was within 10 miles of urban San Diego.
It could happen again and the fire could be unstoppable until reaching the ocean, said Assistant Fire Chief John Jondall of the San Diego Fire Department (SDFD).
“It’s happened in the past, with the Calabasas fire that spread to Malibu in 1996. It could have happened in 2003, too,” he said.
It didn’t reach the coast because the Santa Ana was weak and its winds died down before the fire spread further damage.
The good news is that San Diego is somewhat better prepared now for such a disaster. Jondall said San Diego County now has three firefighting helicopters ” one owned by the city and two by the county. Helicopters can help stop a fire before it gets too big to control.
“We’ve also replaced some of the older type-3 fire engines,” he added. “But on any given day, we only have 46 engine companies on duty. With a fire approaching, that’s not enough. We’d have to ask for help from the state mutual aid agreement.”
However, since there are often many fires raging in California at the same time, the help San Diego could normally expect might be already engaged, he said.
Another new asset for the city is the Community Emergency Response Team (CERT), formed in the wake of the 2003 fires. Headed by Barbara Ayers, the CERT program trains volunteers in disaster preparedness, whether fire, earthquake or tsunami. The goal is to have a CERT team for each community.
CERT training academies are free, but fill rapidly.
“You can also sign up to take the class online,” Ayers said. “All classes are taught by paramedics, lifeguards and firefighters.”
CERT teams and classes are open to anyone 18 or older and include many ways to participate. There are opportunities for administrative workers and ham radio teams, as well as more physical tasks.
Ayers pointed out that even if the next wildfire doesn’t reach all the way to the beach communities, “we’d all still be affected by it, with freeway closures, for example.”
Unfortunately, as the city struggles with financial woes, continued funding for CERT is not assured. Private donations might be necessary to keep the program afloat.
Maurice Luque, spokesman for SDFD said San Diego residents put themselves in danger by “building the way we do,” and by not being prepared, by not clearing surrounding brush.
“Today you can still see tree limbs brushing the rooftops of houses and the rooftops made of shingle wood. So, yes, we have a number of concerns about how bad things could get again,” Luque said.
Luque and Jondall both cited another asset, a new program that scanned information about the entire city, identifying more than 20 areas with a high potential for fires. The SDFD is working with the police department on identifying evacuation routes for each area. All this detailed information will be stored on the computer where local fire stations can access it as needed.
If another disastrous wildfire happens, what can beach community residents do to help?
“Homeowners need to maintain a defensible space around their homes,” Jondall said. “They need to make sure they have non-combustible roofs and fencing.” He suggested that people read up on information for disaster preparedness found in the front of the phone book.
“Plan to be self-sufficient for at least three days,” he added. “Have a plan in case you need to evacuate ” a contact phone number, a rendezvous point. Pre-identify your most important documents and mementos.”
It could happen again. And it could be much worse. Instead of 300 homes destroyed by the Cedar Fire, a more fearsome blaze could reduce 10,000 to 15,000 homes to ashes. Additionally, officials estimate that a fire that spread to the coast could result in more than 200 fatalities and cause more than $1 billion in damage.
The Weather Channel program about the 2003 fires will air on Sunday, May 7, at 9:30 p.m., and on Friday, May 12, throughout the evening.
For information about CERT or upcoming academies, visit www.certsandiego.org or call 619-533-3075.