Even when they win, the San Diego Padres can’t shake the habits that lead to losses more often than not. Yeah, they swept the Arizona Diamondbacks last week, winning one game on the strength of a ninth-inning home run and ending a seven-game losing streak – but they screwed up big-time in a late stanza with the bags loaded, thereby honoring a season-long tradition of choking with men on base. “Unbelievable,” radio co-anchor Ted Leitner sizzed with the final out of the inning. “Unn-be-leeev-a-ble,” he repeated, painstakingly drawing out each syllable in a genuine show of displeasure. And so it goes as the Padres head into the last month of the 2008 campaign, rivaling the American League’s Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners as baseball’s biggest disappointments of the year. Detroit’s pitching never hit the stride that fueled the team’s 2006 World Series appearance. Seattle ex-manager John McLaren was fired earlier this season amid crappy play, and the Mariners never regrouped. But the other 27 major-league teams may want to note an obscure rule of thumb that, for good or ill, seriously colors their records on paper. It comes in handy at this time of year, with something like 135 games played – and it may illustrate more than some clubs – namely San Diego – care to admit. The prevailing theory states that the worst team in the universe will win at least 50 games in a season, while the best (presumably from that same universe) will manage to squander the same number. The remaining 62 tilts, then, are the decisive factors in figuring a team’s “real” record – and with them, recent history takes on new life. The 2001 Mariners, for example, won a stratospheric 116 games, tying the 1906 Chicago Cubs for the greatest modern-era victories mark in a single season. Under the 50-50 rule, the Mariners were undefeated, going 66-0 amid 46 bumps, four fewer than the lowest expected number of losses. The other side of the ledger yields its share of drama. A mere three years before that World Series run, Detroit lost 119 contests, one shy of the post-1900 record set by the 1962 New York Mets. Coupled with their death-defying win total of 43, Detroit went 0-69 once the 50-50 theory is applied. In 1899, the Cleveland Spiders compiled baseball’s worst record in history. At 20-134, the Cleves went a staggering 0-84 under the rule. In those days, the season was generally 154 games long, eight fewer than today’s campaigns – but it’s not as if the Spiders are in a position to quibble. That brings us to 2008 and its litany of surprises. As of Wednesday, Sept. 3, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (nearly winless under the theory for the last few seasons) continue to astound the AL with a league-leading, stellar 84-52 record. That’s good enough for a .618 win-loss percentage – but bring 50-50 into the mix, and the Bucs are playing at a 34-2 clip (translating to .983 on paper). The St. Louis Cardinals, who eventually beat Detroit in the 2006 Series, are standing at an unremarkable 75-64 (.540) right now. Throw in the theory, though, and that 25-14 mark (.710) looks better all the time. Then there’s the Dads, see. With a 53-85 mark at press time, they’re theoretically checking in at 3-35 for the current campaign. That’s a win-loss ratio of .030 – and while the Cleveland Spiders might have killed for that figure, the Sires would delight in relinquishing it. At this rate, San Diego should finish with something like 60 wins, which would bring its record to 10-52 under the rule. We’re thus looking at a .170 percentage, more than .200 off the team’s anemic .384 That’s a little better than the franchise’s mark for its two World Series appearances (1984 and 1998, with a collective record of 1-8, or .125). But that’s the World Series, where the level of play is supposedly at its most elite. With or without the 50-50 rule, the Padres’ fortunes have been anything but.
