As I write this, the thought constantly comes to my head; what would we need to do to get our business and economy back to normal? The answer is; it will take a long time for business to return to normal and our economy, as a whole, will take even longer. It breaks down into the following.
1. Number of customers; Will businesses lose any customers? The answer is yes. Even though the business may have a very loyal following there will be customers who are out of work, that can no longer afford services, no longer be willing to spend money, or possibly not with us any longer. No matter how we look at it, businesses will not have more customers than we had before the virus (this is also assuming everything stays equal and competing businesses are still operating). If other competing businesses are not operating then we really aren’t getting our full economy back.
2. Will customers be willing to pay top dollar or the same price we charged pre-virus? While some will, many won’t. There will be plenty who will be out bargain shopping and only willing to purchase if they think it is a really good deal. I think of myself who used to go to my local bar and spend $6 for a Coors Light. Probably not going to do that for a long time. Many if not all customers have felt some form of fiscal impact from this virus and there will be deals out there ready to be had, even though many of these deals will come at an expense to some businesses (going out of business sales, need to pay off their debt, etc.).
3. Will businesses be able to fulfill customer demand if/when it comes in? Most businesses that had to lay off or furlough employees used to have a workforce of people who were trained and ready to work. Some employees are still available, but some are not and have moved on to other jobs. While physical labor will likely be readily available, getting employees that know your protocols, know your systems, know your beliefs, know your operations, all takes time. Since no one really knows when businesses can open up, we can not put a date on when to hire, train, etc. If the economy all the sudden opens up and a customer says, I want to place a big order, many businesses may not be able to fill that order for quite some time.
4. Realistically, many businesses are planning on sales being significantly down for reasons discussed. If a business is planning on its sales to be down 50% (which is not unreasonable) of what it was last year, it means they will only need 50% of the employees they had last year. This means a business that employed 30 people will now only be employing 15 people which leaves many out of work. The economy is not going to open up for equally for everyone.
5. If after re-opening the economy, an employee in the business catches the virus, does the business have to send all the other employees’ who were in contact with the infected person home? If the business loses a valuable manager for two weeks with no real warning, many will not be able to operate. For many small businesses a key person taking a couple weeks’ vacation was something that was planned on for months. Now, this employee may be gone for a couple of weeks on a moment’s notice. Plus, the others that were working with this employee may be gone as well. If businesses have to close and re-open time after time, will they be able to make it in the long run?
6. What will be the rules in this new business environment? Fewer people in business, social distancing, extra cleaning, no personal contact, face masks, etc. The hardest part of starting a business is writing a business plan. You write your plan with what you are allowed or not allowed to do. Right now, nobody knows what businesses will be allowed to do or how they will need to operate in the future.
7. Will businesses still have vendors and suppliers? While getting some product will continue as normal, many suppliers will be going through the exact same problems and scenarios as above. Getting a product off quality, which is affordable, and on time, will be a much tougher challenge.
8. With all the new rules – will Cal Osha be coming in? Will insurances stay in check? What will become of work comp with the virus? Will rents and landlords change their prices upon opening?
Right now, there are many more questions than answers. Every business is having to look at its businesses plan and figure out what needs to be re-written, which needs to be thrown out, and what needs to be completely changed. Writing a business plan, working in the start-up days, dealing with a changing environment, and establishing working relationships are hard challengers for any size business. With this opening up the economy, all businesses are being asked to start all over again, but only within a matter of days or weeks and without a guaranteed start date.
As a customer, don’t be surprised if some of the services that you were used to in the past disappear. Businesses will be struggling to operate and many making less money working much harder. Tensions will be higher from the owner, management, and especially from front line workers. Customers are going to have to learn to be patient and accept that they might not always get exactly what want. The motto of “the customer is always right” is probably a thing of the past and customers that are polite, courteous, and flexible will definitely have a much better customer experience. Greg Knight
Mission Beach