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SDNews.com
Home Downtown News

Gonzalez’s major-league homer lead is more impressive than you think

Tech by Tech
June 4, 2009
in Downtown News, No Images, Sports, Top Stories
Reading Time: 2 mins read
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A San Diego Padre leads the major leagues in home runs so far this year, with 22 as of June 3. First baseman Adrian Gonzalez is sort of the Ernie Banks of his generation, at least for the moment; Banks, the great Cubs slugger, couldn’t buy a pennant in the 1950s amid his teammates’ streaky hitting and defense (just like ours). The difference is that Gonzalez is on pace to hit 69 dingers this year. The best Banks could do was 47. There is a lot to celebrate in 2009 so far, despite the Dads’ current two-game losing streak (as of June 3) and its unsung .500 win-loss mark. The club had lost 19 of 23 after squandering a 9-3 start and was headed for baseball ignominy. A ten-game win skein (which would have been 12 but for a 6-5 defeat) and at least one brilliant marketing move (the acquisition of the very good center fielder Tony Gwynn Jr.) righted the ship. And if the NL?West-leading Dodgers weren’t pitching so well, who knows what might have been in store as the Padres prepare to close out the first third of the season in the next few days. But amid all those numbers, one stat — Gonzalez’s home run percentage versus his fly-ball outs — stands out far and away No less than 35 percent of his fly balls make it to the stands within the field of play. When you consider the untold variables involved — the velocity and trajectory of the ball; the ball’s curved surface, which must be struck by another curved surface; the type and selection of pitch; the pitcher’s disposition toward the left or right hand (Gonzalez is a left-handed batter) — the odds of a ball reaching the stands 22 times a season, let alone its first two months, look that much less likely, on an exponential scale. Should Gonzalez get his 69 home runs, he’ll have achieved the nearly impossible, on a par with the perfect game. Only 15 pitchers, after all, have accomplished that amazing feat. Sixty or more home runs have been hit in just eight seasons, and those by only five players.

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