As we begin looking at the local real estate market in 2010, it is imperative to look back on 2009 and analyze the numbers and patterns we saw. In many ways, 2009 was a challenging housing market for San Diegans, but we also saw solid signs of improvement, which make us optimistic for the coming year. The trends we are seeing across the county are holding true in many ways for the communities of Point Loma, Ocean Beach and Old Town. For the most part, we saw a larger number of properties sold in 2009 than were sold in 2008, and a slightly decreased median price since 2008. As we saw throughout 2009, these three communities’ statistics usually trended in a similar direction as the county’s, but with much higher or lower numbers due to the area’s high desirability. Across the county, the end of the year brought a flurry of new sales, with 18 percent more homes selling than November 2009. However, in Point Loma, Ocean Beach and Old Town, we didn’t see nearly as much movement. Ocean Beach only sold one more home than it did in November, and Point Loma and Old Town actually sold less homes in December than in November. In total, all three communities had relatively low numbers of sold listings with Point Loma, Ocean Beach and Old Town selling 10, 14 and 4 homes respectively. While some areas experienced quite a few more sales, the county as a whole is seeing inventory shrink. Certainly this means less inventory in the beach communities where properties are highly desirable and often more expensive. This is a trend we saw throughout the year and we expect to see it continue into 2010. Since homes in these areas tend to be in a higher price range, there will naturally be less movement. However, potential sellers in this area should not despair. Homes are still selling, and without some of the deep discounts we are seeing elsewhere in the county. To that point, the 2009 year to date median price for Point Loma was $766,000 which comes out to be more than double the county’s year- to- date median. In even better news, we’ve seen the median rise month to month for five out of the last six months. All of this points to the continued leveling out of the market. Ocean Beach and Old Town fared similarly. In Ocean Beach, the year to date median for 2009 was $635,000, which is $280,000 more than the county’s median. Old Town’s median ended the year at $531,000, again substantially higher than the county’s median of $355,000.These higher median prices, coupled with less inventory, could explain why there are less properties being sold in these areas than in other areas across the county. Moving forward, it is likely that we will continue to see a steady (albeit slow) improvement both in these three communities and across the county as a whole. With the homebuyer tax credit extended and expanded, there are even more people being incentivized to buy now. In addition, banks continue to withhold foreclosed properties, only releasing a few at a time. One might argue that this is good for higher-end markets, as the limited supply of less-expensive housing increases demands. For higher-end markets, this helps promote “move-up” buying, which, in turn, frees up properties in moderately-priced and first-time home buyer markets. — Mark Marquez is the 2010 president of the San Diego Association of Realtors.
